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Journal Articles Theory and Decision Year : 2012

The predictive role of counterfactuals

Abstract

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.
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Dates and versions

hal-00712888 , version 1 (03-07-2012)

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Alfredo Di Tillio, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson. The predictive role of counterfactuals. Theory and Decision, 2012, 73 (1), pp.NC. ⟨10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6⟩. ⟨hal-00712888⟩

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