%0 Journal Article %T The effectiveness of simple decision heuristics : Forecasting commercial success for early-stage ventures %+ Joseph L. Rotman School of Management %A Astebro, Thomas %A Elhedhli, Samir %< avec comité de lecture %@ 0025-1909 %J Management Science %I INFORMS %V 52 %N 3 %P 395-409 %8 2006-01-01 %D 2006 %R 10.1287/mnsc.1050.0468 %K Heuristic method %K Probabilistic approach %K Statistical analysis %K Judgment %K Decision support system %K Decision making %K Forecasting %Z Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration/domain_shs.gestion.stratJournal articles %X We investigate the decision heuristics used by experts to forecast that early-stage ventures are subsequently commercialized. Experts evaluate 37 project characteristics and subjectively combine data on all cues by examining both critical flaws and positive factors to arrive at a forecast. A conjunctive model is used to describe their process, which sums "good" and "bad" cue counts separately. This model achieves a 91.8% forecasting accuracy of the experts' correct forecasts. The model correctly predicts 86.0% of outcomes in out-of-sample, out-of-time tests. Results indicate that reasonably simple decision heuristics can perform well in a natural and very difficult decision-making context. %G English %L hal-00476866 %U https://hec.hal.science/hal-00476866 %~ SHS %~ HEC