@article{astebro:hal-00476866, TITLE = {{The effectiveness of simple decision heuristics : Forecasting commercial success for early-stage ventures}}, AUTHOR = {Astebro, Thomas and Elhedhli, Samir}, URL = {https://hec.hal.science/hal-00476866}, JOURNAL = {{Management Science}}, PUBLISHER = {{INFORMS}}, VOLUME = {52}, NUMBER = {3}, PAGES = {395-409}, YEAR = {2006}, MONTH = Jan, DOI = {10.1287/mnsc.1050.0468}, KEYWORDS = {Heuristic method ; Probabilistic approach ; Statistical analysis ; Judgment ; Decision support system ; Decision making ; Forecasting}, HAL_ID = {hal-00476866}, HAL_VERSION = {v1}, }